[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with only B-class events from regions 865 and 866. There is a 
possibility of isolated C-class flares today. Solar wind velocity 
has increased slightly to 370km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has remained neutral since 10 UT. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Learmonth            1   11010010
      Culgoora             2   21010111
      Camden               3   1-211111
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Hobart               1   11100110
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1201 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     6    Quiet 
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected again today. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. Notable 
exceptions include isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
in the late evening and earily night hours and isolated cases 
of spread F in the late night earily morning hours at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    20    near predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected today. Noted isolated 
cases of sporadic E in late evening and earily night hours at 
low latitudes, as well as isolated cases of spread F in late 
night to earily morning hours at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions to prevail over the next 2-3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    65200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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