[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 13 09:57:25 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. This is expected
to continue. A weak coronal hole is currently located west of
solar central meridian and may produce elevated solar wind speeds
from 15 March. The Earth moved out of a coronal hole wind stream
over the UT day with solar wind speeds decreasing steadily from
a peak of 560km/s at 00UT to be 440km/s at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12212111
Darwin 3 12111111
Learmonth 3 11212110
Culgoora 3 12112011
Camden 6 12222122
Canberra 3 12212000
Hobart 3 02222010
Casey(Ant) 6 2-322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4333 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 4 Quiet
14 Mar 5 Quiet
15 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet over the
UT day. Continuing quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected
for 13 and 14 March. A weak coronal hole currently west of solar
central meridian may cause isolated unsettled periods from 15
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24-48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 13 near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal over
the past 24 hours. Expect mostly normal HF conditions on 13 and
14 March. Isolated periods of degraded HF possible in NZ/Antarctic
regions on 15 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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