[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. This is expected 
to continue. A weak coronal hole is currently located west of 
solar central meridian and may produce elevated solar wind speeds 
from 15 March. The Earth moved out of a coronal hole wind stream 
over the UT day with solar wind speeds decreasing steadily from 
a peak of 560km/s at 00UT to be 440km/s at the time of this report. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12212111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Learmonth            3   11212110
      Culgoora             3   12112011
      Camden               6   12222122
      Canberra             3   12212000
      Hobart               3   02222010
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   4333 1321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar     4    Quiet 
14 Mar     5    Quiet 
15 Mar     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet over the 
UT day. Continuing quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for 13 and 14 March. A weak coronal hole currently west of solar 
central meridian may cause isolated unsettled periods from 15 
March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next 24-48 hours. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    13    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal over 
the past 24 hours. Expect mostly normal HF conditions on 13 and 
14 March. Isolated periods of degraded HF possible in NZ/Antarctic 
regions on 15 March. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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