[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 11 09:52:46 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
UT day with no significant flares during the period, expected
to continue. The Earth remains in a coronal hole wind stream
with solar wind speeds reaching 550km/s over the period. This
is expected to ease over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 23233222
Darwin 10 23233222
Learmonth 9 2323320-
Culgoora 10 23233222
Camden 10 23233222
Canberra 10 23233222
Hobart 10 23333212
Casey(Ant) 13 34-33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0100 0232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the
UT day, with low level activity at all latitudes resulting from
elevated solar wind speeds. These predominantly unsettled
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours,
returning to quiet levels by 12 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24-48 hours. Minor degradation of HF conditions possible
at high latitudes over the period in response to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
12 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
13 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values / depressed to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
the N.Aus/PNG regions over the next 24-48 hours. Minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are
possible in the S.Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions over the period
in reposnse to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 91900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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