[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121121
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Learmonth            4   12111122
      Culgoora             3   12111120
      Camden               5   22122121
      Canberra             3   12121110
      Hobart               3   02121111
      Casey(Ant)           6   22122222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun     3    Quiet 
24 Jun     4    Quiet 
25 Jun     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jun    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 90% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    17200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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