[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 2 09:41:53 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The coronal hole has been slower to take effect than
expected but the solar wind speed has risen steadily over the
UT day from 400km/sec to 550km/sec and shows signs of stabilising
at that level. IMF Bz has oscillated north and south so reconnection
with the geomagnetic field is likely not strong. The four sunspots
on the disc are small and not magnetically complex, so very unlikely
to flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12231221
Darwin 7 22231222
Learmonth 7 12231222
Culgoora 6 22231121
Camden 6 12131221
Canberra 6 12232121
Hobart 6 12132121
Casey(Ant) 10 2333222-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Jun 16 active
04 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 30 May and is
current for interval 31 May to 2 June. The coronal hole has been
slower to take effect than expected although solar wind speed
has now increased to significant levels. Geomagnetic activity
is slowly increasing, particuarly at high latitudes. This should
increase and become more global over the UT day. IMF Bz is oscillating
north-south and currently not contributing to the increase in
activity. Any prolonged southward Bz will greatly enhance the
effect of the coronal hole solar wind speed on the geomagnetic
field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
COMMENT: Spread F prevalent at night at low/equatorial latitides
and many mid-latitude stations. Coronal hole effects delayed
so MUFs likely still enhanced. Expect conditions to degrade in
the next 2 days as the solar wind speed has risen to significant
levels and geomagnetic activity is slowly rising.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 15% above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 28 about 15% below predicted monthly values
03 Jun 22 about 15% below predicted monthly values
04 Jun 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The effects of the solar coronal hole have been slower
to appear than expected although solar wind speed is now increasing.
The regional ionosphere is still slightly enhanced although likely
to be suppressed to average or below critical frequencies in
the next 2 days. Depressions unlikely to exceed 15-20%. Spread
F is still occurring at most tropical and several mid-latitude
stations, particularly night and pre-dawn. This is likely to
continue and degrade night time communications at all latitudes
over the next 2 days. Blanketing sporadic E was observed at Pt
Moresby around dusk and a strong pre-dawn F2 layer enhancement
at Vanimo and Pt Moresby, so the equatorial ionosphere is currently
dynamic.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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