[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 5 09:43:56 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Active Region 898 produced a minor C-class flare at
2030UT. Solar wind speed has been increasing slowly since late
in the UT day Jul 03. This appears to be the slow onset of the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Solar radio noise has increased
with the large sunspot group in AR 898 now just past solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 11123233
Darwin 9 12123233
Learmonth 8 11123233
Culgoora 8 11113233
Camden 8 22122233
Canberra 8 01123233
Hobart 6 01013133
Casey(Ant) 11 12222244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1011 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 12 Unsettled
06 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream has
been gradual, commencing late in the UT day Jul 03. Fluctuations
in the Bz component of the inteplanetary magnetic field have
been mild about neutral. A period of negative Bz around 2130UT
resulted in active to minor storm conditions at high latitudes
only. Otherwise the regional geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled,
with limited coupling between the interplanetary and geomagnetic
fields. Expect active to minor storm conditions days one and
two at high latitudes. Mostly unsettled conditions at low to
mid latitudes with the chance of active intervals. Conditions
should decline to quiet to unsettled by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions at low to mid latitudes.
Possible periods of disturbance mainly local night at mid to
high latitudes next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable enhancements/depressions during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by up to 60% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Evening and night time spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Possible disturbances mainly local night hours S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions next two days due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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