[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 26 10:47:08 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 848 produced the only notable flare event, a B8.8 class
flare at 1418UT. Solar wind velocity remained under 440km/s over
the entire UT day, with a fluctuating period between 1400UT and
1800UT during which Bz turned southward (-5nT) and has remained
so to the time of this report. The current geoeffective coronal
hole is approaching the west solar limb, as seen with reduced
solar wind stream parameters.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 850.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32221122
Darwin 7 22221123
Learmonth 8 32221123
Culgoora - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 32221122
Hobart 6 22221122
Casey(Ant) 13 34332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3420 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 6 Quiet
27 Jan 6 Quiet
28 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed paramters have declined with the current
geoeffective coronal hole approaching the west limb. The north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz was
northward for the first half of the UT day, turning southward at
1500UT to a maximum of -5nT. Mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed at high latitudes only during the last half of
the UT day, otherwise conditions were quiet. Expect Quiet
conditions over all latitudes for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions observed at
low to mid latitudes. Periods of high latitude disturbance in
association with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect variable
low-latitude enhancements/depressions, and generally improving
mid to high latitude conditions next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
28 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed again for Equatorial/Northern
Aus and Southern Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Conditions
are expected to improve in the next 2 days. Spread-F conditions
observed for Southern Aus/Antarctic regions with an expected
decrease in this behaviour as geomagnetic activity declines with
the current coronal hole moving out of geoeffective position.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 210000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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