[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1011
      Darwin               2   1111 1011
      Learmonth            2   2120 1000
      Culgoora             2   2110 1011
      Camden               -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1210 1011
      Hobart               2   1211 1001
      Casey(Ant)           7   ---2 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     1    Quiet 
06 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected for today. Recurrence suggests 
that a mild increase in activity may be experienced 6-7 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    42300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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