[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The only significant activity noted was a emerging 
flux region at S10W35. The ACE spacecraft indicates a solar wind 
speed of approximately 300 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remains between -/+ 2nT. Note in two days the 
Earth may enter a high speed wind stream induced by a small coronal 
hole just north of the solar equator. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11211000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Learmonth            2   22111000
      Culgoora             2   11211000
      Camden               2   11211001
      Canberra             2   -1211000
      Hobart               2   11211100
      Casey(Ant)           5   2--31111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb    16    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at quiet levels and is expected 
to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days. 
Late on 10 February or Earily on 11 February expect activity 
to increase to active levels due to high speed coronal hole wind 
stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next two days, except for isolated cases of spread F and 
sporadic E. In three days time there is a possiblity of mild 
depressions due to the possibility of increased geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Feb    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal except for isolated 
cases of sporadic E and spread F. Expect these conditions to 
continue for the next two days with a possibility of mild depressions 
in three days time. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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