[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 7 10:53:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0228UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.0 0825UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
X6.6 1847UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at high levels over the last
24 hours. Region 930(S07E72) produced several C-class flares,
an M1.1(0220UT) flare, a M6.0(08230UT) flare and an X6.0 (1847UT)
flare. The X-flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep and
a CME may have been associated with this flare, but there is
currently no LASCO C3 imagery to confirm. Due to region 930's
location on the disc a CME is not likely to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speed increased from 400km/s at 0000UT to be 550km/s
at the time of this report.The increase in the solar wind velocity
is due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-10nT throughout the
UT day. A proton event is currently in progress, beginning at
1555UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high
levels for the next three days.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 930.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 19 33344343
Darwin 16 33234243
Townsville 19 33344343
Learmonth 26 33345354
Camden 18 33344333
Canberra 18 33344333
Hobart 18 33344333
Casey(Ant) 24 45-33344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Camden 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 25 active
08 Dec 16 active
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 4 December
and is current for interval 5-7 December. Geomagnetic activity
ranged between Unsettled to Active over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind paramters have increased as the arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole has arrived. Geomagentic
activity is expected to remain at Active levels for the next
2 days with possibility of minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions
most likely due to PCA effects after the X class flare has increased
proton levels. With an increase in geomagnetic activity expected
over the next 2 days (due to coronal hole effects), minor to
significant degraded HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are
possible for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
09 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 6 December
and is current for interval 6-8 December. Moslty normal HF conditions
for Northern Aus and Equatorial regions as well as Southern Aus/NZ
regions. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic conditions most
likely due to PCA effects from the proton event that is in progress.
Similar yet degraded conditions are expected for Southern Aus/NZ
regions and Antarctic regions for the next 2 days with an anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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