[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 23 09:43:08 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. Only a few B-class flares were observed. The
coronal hole effect seems to have come into effect later
than earlier anticipations. The solar wind stream remained
strengthened on 22 August with solar wind speed remaining
between 440 km/s and 470 km/s almost the whole day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to moderate (approx +6nT to -10nT)
fluctuations until 1700UT and then stayed close to the
normal value for the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low to low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 23443431
Darwin 14 23433332
Learmonth 16 23443430
Culgoora 14 22443331
Camden 13 22433331
Canberra 16 22443431
Hobart 15 22443430
Casey(Ant) 21 34433532
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Charters_Towers 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2422 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 11 Quiet to unsettled
24 Aug 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
25 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
active levels today. The reason of this rise in the activity
level seems to be a delayed effect of a coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet to
unsettled levels on 23 August and then decline during the
following two days as the coronal hole effect diminishes
during that period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next 3 days with some possibility
of minor degradations on high latitudes on 23 and 24 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 11 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 13 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ locations for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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