[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 19 09:52:31 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained close to 350 km/s
by 1600UT and then suddenly increased to around 410 km/s
with the arrival of a possible weak shock. The solar wind
speed then gradually decreased to 380 km/s by the time of
this report. At this stage it is not clear if this shock
was due to the CME activity that was observed on 16 August.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained mostly slightly southwards (upto approx
-6nT) until around 1100UT and slightly northwards (upto
approx +7nT) during the rest of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low to low levels for the next
three days. The effect of the CME observed on 16 August may
strengthen the solar wind stream on 19 August. A coronal
hole effect may also keep the solar wind stream strengthened
on 20 and 21 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22322212
Darwin 9 22322322
Learmonth 8 22322312
Culgoora 7 22322212
Camden 8 22322222
Canberra 8 22323212
Hobart 8 13322212
Casey(Ant) 10 23332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1021 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 25 Active to Minor storm
20 Aug 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
21 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August
and is current for interval 17-19 August. Active to minor
storm levels may be reached on 19 August due to the effect
of a CME that was observed on 16 August. The effect of a
coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to
unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated active
periods on 21 August. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed
in the IPS magnetometer data at 1643UT on 18 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 18 August.
Degraded HF conditions are likely on 19 August due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
Isolated degradation periods may also be observed on 20 and
21 August due to a possible rise in the geomagnetic activity
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/ depressed 5%
21 Aug 13 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on
18 August and is current for interval 18-20 August.
Degraded HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions on
19 August, especially in the southern parts, due an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. Some isolated
degradaded periods are also possible on 20 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list