[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day with no 
significant Xray flares. Region AR904 (S12E41) has grown further 
but simplified in magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected 
to be low over the next 24 hours however there remains the possibility 
of an isolated M-class flare from AR904. The solar wind speed 
settled back to ~380km/s over the day, and the interplanetary 
Bz component was relatively quiet and fluctuating between +/-3nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12212311
      Darwin               6   12112312
      Learmonth            5   22112310
      Culgoora             6   12212311
      Camden               6   22212212
      Canberra             6   12212311
      Hobart               6   12212311
      Casey(Ant)           8   23222321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2121 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     4    Quiet 
14 Aug     4    Quiet 
15 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the UT 
day with an unsettled period at ~1400 UT in response to a small 
magnetic impulse observed at all latitudes. Expect quiet geomagnetic 
conditions to prevail over the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Expect mostly normal 
HF conditions to prevail at all latitudes over the next few days. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    22    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal. 
Expect mostly normal conditions to prevail next two to three 
days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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