[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 580 km/s due to a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream. The interplanetary Bz component 
has fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. A emerging flux region is developing 
at S09E62, this is the only spot group on the sun presently. 
The effects of the coronal hole will disipate over the day, however 
another weak cornal hole is moving into a geoeffective position 
tomorrow and may cause a small increase in the solar wind at 
that time. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322211
      Darwin               7   22322211
      Learmonth            8   23322310
      Culgoora             6   12322211
      Camden               8   22322222
      Canberra             8   13332210
      Hobart               7   12333110
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             32   3366 5332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     6    Quiet 
10 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
11 Aug    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic field to settle over the UT day, 
however, another high speed wind stream may cause unsettled to 
active levels to prevail over the following 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E, otherwise normal 
HF conditions should prevail. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   277000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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