[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 7 09:11:01 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 330 km/s. The interplanetary
Bz component was mostly northward during the last 24 hours. A
weak coronal hole may cause some active to unsettled levels at
high latitudes today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 4 12211201
Learmonth 4 12221201
Culgoora 3 11111102
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 11112100
Hobart 2 11102101
Casey(Ant) 4 12211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to coronal hole effects the geomagnetic field may
have unsettled to active levels at high latitudes today. Expect
low and mid latituds to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E, otherwise normal
HF conditions should prevail.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 43500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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