[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 400 km/s. The interplanetary 
Bz component has been mostly northward. A weak coronal hole will 
enter into a geoeffective position in 2 days time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11100000
      Camden               4   11111212
      Canberra             1   01002000
      Hobart               0   01000000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3201 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     6    Quiet 
06 Aug     6    Quiet 
07 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to remain quiet today and 
tomorrow. In two days time the earth will enter a high speed 
solar wind stream due to a weak coronal hole. This may cause 
the geomagnetic field to reach active levels with a possibility 
of isolated minor storms at high latitudes. Expect low and mid 
latituds to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Noted isolated cases of sporadic E, otherwise normal 
Hf conditions prevail. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    14    near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    18    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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