[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 30 09:47:37 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Three C-class
flares were recorded over the period, one (C1.1 at 29/1852) from
region 0875, and two (C2.3 at 28/2336 and C2.3 at 29/1631) from
a new active region on the east limb. Both of the latter were
associated with an eastward directed CME visible in SOHO LASCO
imagery, however neither are expected to significantly impact
the Earth. Minor plage enhancements and material motion of small
dark filaments was noted by Learmonth observatory in regions
0875 and 0876 early in the UT day. Region 0875 (S08W03) remains
a Dkc beta-gamma spot group and may produce further C-class flares
over the next day. Further flaring is also possible from the
new active region on the east limb. The interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) was very quiet over the period and solar wind speed
has returned to ~350km/s after yesterday's high of 450km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Darwin 3 21110102
Learmonth 1 21000001
Culgoora 0 10000001
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 7 323110--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3352 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 3 Quiet
01 May 2 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day, due
in part to very quiet interplantary magnetic field (IMF) conditions
and a low solar wind speed. With no high speed solar wind streams
or CMEs expected, the outlook is for continuing quiet conditions
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes.
These conditions are expected to continue next three days in
the absence of major M class flaring activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 15% above
predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 36 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 May 39 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 May 41 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day
with MUFs generally well above predicted monthly values. Mostly
normal HF conditions expected next three days with the strong
ionosphere expected to continue due to extra ionising solar radiation
from solar active regions 875, 876 and a new active region rotating
onto the visible disk. MUFs generally above predicted monthly
values by 10-20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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