[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 8 08:23:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar regions located in the far western solar hemisphere
have simplified magnetically. Solar region 867(S16W44) produced
an impulse C9.7 class flare at 0803UT. A coronal hole is visible
in SOHO EIT/SXI imagery. Also, SOHO EIT/SXI imagery shows emission
near the eastern solar limb, indicating another spot group will
rotate onto the solar disk in coming days. Solar wind speed declined
from 390 to 340km/sec over the past 24 hours. Another mild increase
in wind speed is possible due to the coronal hole, if the recent
increase over the last two days was not associated with this
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Darwin 2 12111000
Learmonth 2 21002000
Culgoora 2 11002001
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 2 01102001
Hobart 1 01002001
Casey(Ant) 6 23222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 1342 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 16 active
10 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next few days. Active
conditions 09 April due to coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high latitudes
local night hours, due to geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions obsereved in the Aus/NZ
region. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours next two to three days southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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