[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 3222
      Darwin              11   3332 3222
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            11   3333 2222
      Hobart              11   3313 3222
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-3 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1002 3202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
28 Sep    19    active 
29 Sep    18    active 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    61200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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