[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 13/2303UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X1.8 13/2322UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M4.6    1039UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2243 4322
      Learmonth           16   2233 5322
      Culgoora            15   2243 4322
      Canberra            20   2254 4332
      Hobart              15   2244 3322
      Casey(Ant)          21   4433 43-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             51   6566 5344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    73    Storm levels 
16 Sep    29    active 
17 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 September 
and is current for interval 15-17 September. Strongly disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal-Fair    Fair           Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 09 2005 0100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal-Poor    Poor           Poor(PCA)
16 Sep      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep     0    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
16 Sep    18    near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep    22    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 September 
and is current for interval 13-15 September (SWFs) . HF conditions 
may show mild to significant degradations in Aus/NZ regions, 
especially in the southern regions on 15 September. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 714 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    90400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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