[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 14 09:52:30 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1121UT possible lower European
X1.5/3B 1927UT observed all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 12 September as region
808(S11E03) produced two X-, one M- and several C-class flares.
The timings of the major flares are as follows: M1.3(1121UT),
X1.5(1927UT) and X1.4(2004UT). The X1.5 flare was associated
to a bright and fast full halo CME with reported preliminary
speed of 1500 km/s. This CME is earthward directed and its
shock may arrive on 15 September. This shock arrival is
expected to significantly strengthen the solar wind stream.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 800 km/s
to 650 km/s today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic filed (Bz) remained slightly to moderately southwards
until 1400UT today and then remained mostly slightly northwards
during the rest of the day. Region 808 has shown decay in area
during the last 24 hours, but it still remains magentically
complex and capable of producing major flares during the next
few days. The >10MeV proton event, that started at 0215UT/08
September, has ended in the early hours of the UT day today,
but due to several flares and CME activities in recent days,
the proton flux may rise again. Solar activity is expected to
remain at moderate to high levels during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Unsettled to major storm.
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 26 4355 3240
Learmonth 24 4345 -140
Culgoora 34 4355 ----
Canberra 50 5456 ----
Hobart 42 5456 2---
Casey(Ant) 19 4344 323-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 66 6466 5656
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 22 Unsettled to minor storm.
15 Sep 80 Major to severe storm.
16 Sep 22 Unsettled to minor storm.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 12 September
and is current for interval 13-14 September. Geomagnetic
activity may rise upto severe storm levels on 15 September
due to a full halo CME activity from region 808. The geomagnetic
activity may remain at unsettled to minor storm levels on
14 and 16 September.
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
data at 0713UT on 13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0235UT 08/09, Ended at 0025UT 13/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during the
next few days. HF conditions are expected to show moderate
to strong degradations on high latitudes on 15 September.
Low and mid latitudes may also observe mild to significant
degradations on this day. Moderate to significant degradations
may also be observed on high latitudes on 14 and 15 September.
Minor to mild degrdations are possible on low and mid latitudes
on 14 and 16 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Less data availabe over the UT day.
Strong degradations observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5%
15 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 40%.
16 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
13 September and is current for interval 13-14 September.
HF conditions may show mild to significant degradations
in Aus/NZ regions, especially in the southern regions on
15 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 896 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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