[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 1 09:51:12 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
only a C2-class flare from region 803 at 1026UT and minor B class
events from region 806. Solar activity is expected to remain at these 
low levels, as both regions 803 and 806 have exhibited signs 
of decay over the last few days. Solar wind speed parameters increased 
over the last 24 hours, due to the effects of the current geoeffetive 
coronal hole. Solar wind rose from 350km/s at the beginning of 
the UT day to be 500km/s at the time of this report. Sustained 
periods of southward Bz between 1100UT-2100UT ranging from -10nT 
to -20nT where observed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 31 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      31   2232 4665
      Learmonth           32   3233 5655
      Culgoora            21   2222 4554
      Canberra            31   1232 4665
      Hobart              38   1221 4675
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             109   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep    30    Active to Minor storm 
02 Sep    22    active 
03 Sep    16    active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm 
levels over the past 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 24 hours with Active conditions 
expected for 02Sep. 
A weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1537UT on 31 Aug. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
02 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Periods of Disturbed HF conditions are expected over 
the next 24-36 hours due to elevated geomagnetic conditions, 
especially for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
02 Sep    28    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Sep    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods for HF communications are 
expected for the next 24 hours due to current elevated geomagnetic 
conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    76300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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