[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 1 09:51:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
only a C2-class flare from region 803 at 1026UT and minor B class
events from region 806. Solar activity is expected to remain at these
low levels, as both regions 803 and 806 have exhibited signs
of decay over the last few days. Solar wind speed parameters increased
over the last 24 hours, due to the effects of the current geoeffetive
coronal hole. Solar wind rose from 350km/s at the beginning of
the UT day to be 500km/s at the time of this report. Sustained
periods of southward Bz between 1100UT-2100UT ranging from -10nT
to -20nT where observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 31 2232 4665
Learmonth 32 3233 5655
Culgoora 21 2222 4554
Canberra 31 1232 4665
Hobart 38 1221 4675
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 30 Active to Minor storm
02 Sep 22 active
03 Sep 16 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm
levels over the past 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Conditions
are expected to continue for the next 24 hours with Active conditions
expected for 02Sep.
A weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1537UT on 31 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
02 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of Disturbed HF conditions are expected over
the next 24-36 hours due to elevated geomagnetic conditions,
especially for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 Sep 28 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods for HF communications are
expected for the next 24 hours due to current elevated geomagnetic
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 76300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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