[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 21 09:50:29 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no flare activity. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next few days as there is no active regions currently
on disc. The equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective on 22 Oct. The solar wind velocity declined
from 380 km/s at 0000UT to be 310 km/s at the time of this report.
The IMF Bz remained predominently nuetral for the entire UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 1112 0101
Darwin 2 1111 0101
Learmonth 3 1--- ----
Culgoora 1 1011 0101
Canberra 1 0012 0001
Hobart 1 1002 0001
Casey(Ant) 8 3332 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 2222 2301
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
23 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours
with an expected increase to Unsettled and possible Active
conditions from 22Oct-24Oct due to anticipated elevated
solar wind stream parameters from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbed periods for HF Propagation are expected to
continue for the next 24 hrs for all latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Oct 15 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Oct 15 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial and mid latitude locations experienced depressed
periods towards the end of the local day and overnight. Southern
Aust. and NZ regions experienced some disturbed periods as well
during the first half of the UT day. Similar HF conditions are
expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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