[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 18 09:51:38 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the day with no significant
flares. Overall solar activity is expected to continue at low
levels over the next 24 hours. Minor flaring is possible from
region 815 but becoming less likely as it is declining and had
low magnetic complexity (alpha). An active region can be seem
emerging on the limb in SOHO spacecraft EIT 284 images which
may be AR812 due to return on the 19th. AR812 was not a large
flare producing region on the last transit. However, recurrence
suggests activity may increase in the next 48 hours. The solar
wind velocity fluctuated early in the day as high as 460 km/sec
but settled to an average 350 km/sec. IMF Bz has been southwards
for most of the day, favouring merging with the geomagnetic field,
except for northward excursions at 06-10UT and 19-22UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 2333 4311
Darwin 10 2222 4311
Learmonth 7 222- ----
Culgoora 9 232- ----
Canberra 13 2333 4310
Hobart 12 2333 4211
Casey(Ant) 13 3343 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1122 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 7 Quiet
19 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was higher than yesterday, possibly
due to the enhanced solar wind speed and interaction with the
geomagnetic field due to IMF Bz predominantly southwards. Activity
is expected to be quiet at low and mid latitudes and possibly
unsettled at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Propagation is expected to be normal in the next 24
hrs at mid latitudes. Higher latitudes are undergoing enhanced
polar cap covection from extended geomagnetic merging with the
IMF and are slightly disturbed. Equatorial latitudes are showing
strong depletions during the night.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 25 about 10% below predicted monthly values
19 Oct 28 near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The equatorial ionosphere is still showing a strong
depression at night. Mid-latitudes appear mostly normal with
slight depletions across the day although some regions local
afternoon ionograms show enhancement. Many stations across the
east coast and southern Australia show strong morning sporadic
E at the time of this report. High latitudes are moderately disturbed
by enhanced polar cap convective flows due to geomagnetic merging
with the solar magnetic field (IMF).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 62400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list