[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 1012
      Darwin               3   2111 1012
      Learmonth            3   2111 1012
      Culgoora             2   1111 1012
      Canberra             2   1111 1011
      Hobart               1   1100 1011
      Casey(Ant)           6   2331 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1200 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct    12    Unsettled 
17 Oct     6    Quiet 
18 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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