[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 1122
      Darwin               4   2111 1121
      Learmonth            4   1211 1222
      Culgoora             4   1212 1122
      Canberra             4   1212 1121
      Hobart               3   1011 1121
      Casey(Ant)          10   2-33 2132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on 
the 14th October in response to a small coronal hole. Activity 
should subside by the 16 October. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Higher latitudes are likely to experience degraded conditions 
on the 15 October. Conditions should improve at higher latitudes 
over the 16 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      08-11 UT and 14-17 UT at Vanimo and 07-09 UT and 15 UT
      at Port Moresby.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      03-06 UT. Spread F observed at Niue 10-11 UT and
      Brisbane 12-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Sydney and Canberra 03-05 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      Macquarie Island 09-18 UT and sporadic E observed at
      Mawson 18-20 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct    23    near predicted monthly values 
15 Oct    15    Higher latitudes are likely to experience depressions 
                to 40% at times. Lower latitude MUFs should be 
                near predicted monthly values. 
16 Oct    23    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions are likely on 15 October, particularly at 
higher latitudes. The ionosphere should recover on or by 16 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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