[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 15:20:38 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
+++ CORRECTED COPY FORECAST IONOSPHERIC CONDITIONS +++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux stabilised at a low level
with only three small B-class flares from AR822 which is right
on the western limb. AR823 has now passed behind the west limb.
AR824 is about 25 degrees east of the central solar meridian
and quiescent, producing no significant flaring today. The IMF
has been around zero with a brief northward turning 05-07UT and
slightly southwards (less than 5nT) from 09-15UT. These conditions
suggests mild reconnection with the geomagnetic field for most
of the day. Solar wind velocity has been slightly elevated, 450-500km/s
suggesting some enhanced viscous interaction with the geomagnetic
field. Solar wind temperature is slightly above average and a
density jump was observed near 10UT at the ACE spacecraft near
the L1 point.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 1222 1222
Darwin 5 2221 1222
Learmonth 6 2222 1222
Culgoora 5 1222 1222
Canberra 8 1323 1222
Hobart 8 1323 1222
Casey(Ant) 12 --43 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1332 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Extended periods of midly southwards solar magnetic
field (IMF) favoured merging with the geomagnetic field and
enhanced polar magnetic activity. The enhancement appeared
to last long enough to weakly spread from polar to mid latitudes
causing a mild increase in magnetic activity. A slightly elevated
solar wind speed by 50-80km/sec is possibly contributing to
enhancing global magnetic activity by viscous interaction at
the flanks of the magnetosphere. IMF is currently fluctuating
around zero so similar conditions may prevail causing a slow
increase in global magnetic activity. An extended northward
IMF Bz will inhibit activity and extended Bz southwards will
enhance it, as will further solar wind speed increases.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT:
Both enhancements and depletions, observed at low
latitudes over the day but the previous significant
pre-dawn depletions have waned. Mid latitudes showed
mild enhancements and no evidence of the previous
pre-dawn depression. High latitudes were midly disturbed
by enhanced polar convectin due to magnetic merging with
IMF. Sporadic E strong in various locations. Expect
normal conditions with continuing mild variations at
low latitudes. Slight depression of overall ionosphere
may result from slowly increasing geomagnetic
conditions. Possible continued disturbance at high
latitudes in association with IMF merging activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 5 about 10% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov 10 about 10% below predicted monthly values
27 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT:
Variable conditions again observed in equatorial
regions. PNG experience extended depessed conditions
overnight, recovering near dawn while the western
Pacific was enhanced most of the time with a strong
dawn depression. Aus/NZ regions were mostly near average
except for enhancements in the north-west, similar to PNG.
Sporadic-E conditions again observed at Equatorial/N Aus
regions, especially at local morning. Western Pacific
again had persistent sporadic E over the early night.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days with
continued low latitude variability and a slight depression
of already weak solar minmum ionosphere due to slowly
increasing geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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