[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 20 10:39:23 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Active region 822 produced a C5.8 level flare at 18/2357
and a C1.5 level flare at 2019UT. Neither event appears to have
an associated CME. A partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C3
imagery during the second half of the UT day. This appears to
have originated from a backside event. Broadband solar radio
noise has declined a little from yesterday, but is still significant.
Some loop prominence acivity was observed beyond the west limb,
and a new active region has appeared at the east limb which has
shown some growth over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 2211 2333
Darwin 8 2211 2333
Learmonth 9 31-- ----
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 7 2210 2332
Hobart 7 2210 1332
Casey(Ant) 13 3--3 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0011 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
trended southward after 13UT, and solar wind velocity trended
steadily upward. This was possibly the passage of the CME associated
with the solar filament eruption of Nov 16. Bz returned to neutral
late in the UT day. Brief isolated active intervals were observed
at high latitudes, otherwise geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled. Expect generally quiet to unsettled conditions
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime enhancements and night-time depressions
observed at low latitudes. Mild daytime depressions observed
at some mid latitudes. Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal.
Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Possible minor
disturbances at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Highly variable conditions observed Equatorial/PNG regions
with daytime enhancements and variable, occasionally deep, night-time
depressions. Mild daytime depressions S Aus region. Normal to
enhanced conditions Antarctic region. Solar radio noise again
observed during sunlight hours on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
and IPS Antarctic Riometer network. Expect similar HF conditions
next three days with continuing solar radio noise emissions and
low latitude variability. Possible minor disturbances Antarctic
region on days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 13600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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