[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Active Region 822 remains the only significant feature 
on the visible solar disk. Flare activity over the UT day was 
limited to B-class, with a minor C-class event late in the UT 
day. The feint CME observed on 16 Nov in association with an 
erupting filament in the NW quadrant expanded into a partial-halo 
feature, which may have a weak earth-directed component. Further 
C- to M-class activity is possible from AR822. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1121 0001
      Darwin               2   2121 0001
      Learmonth            2   1121 0001
      Culgoora             2   1121 0001
      Canberra             1   0121 0000
      Hobart               2   1121 0000
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-32 1001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0200 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     4    Quiet 
19 Nov     4    Quiet 
20 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Quiet 
geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes. Expect continuing 
mostly quiet conditions next two days. Minor disturbances possible 
mainly at high latitudes on day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed at low latitudes, 
recovering post-dawn. Otherwise HF conditiions mostly normal. 
Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed PNG region during local 
night, otherwise conditions mostly normal. Expect mostly normal 
HF conditions next three days. Possible minor disturbances Antarctic 
region on day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    85600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"