[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 14/2200UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.4    1751UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2112
      Darwin               4   2112 2112
      Learmonth            6   2213 2102
      Culgoora             3   1112 210-
      Canberra             7   1223 3111
      Hobart               6   2223 2001
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-32 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   4322 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    12    Unsettled 
17 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Nov    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    81100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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