[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 05

Mon Nov 14 10:55:51 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    1451UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: A new solar region (number 822) has rotated around the 
east limb of the sun and produced an M2 flare. Further isolated 
low level M class flare activity may be possible from this region. 
Proximity to limb restricts spot analysis. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2223
      Darwin               7   2222 2223
      Learmonth            7   2222 2223
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             9   2223 2322
      Hobart               9   1223 3322
      Casey(Ant)          11   24-2 2233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2322 3321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Nov     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Depressed by 25% during local day,
     Depressed by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The region ionosphere was unexpectedly depressed yesterday. 
The depression was not associated with geomagnetic activity. 
Regional MUFs expected to be near monthly predicted values today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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