[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance 
of C-class flares from Boulder region 10820. The coronal hole 
wind stream effects are slowly diminishing, present solar wind 
speed is 600km/s. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3223 2322
      Darwin               7   3212 1222
      Learmonth            9   3222 2322
      Culgoora             8   3222 2222
      Canberra            10   3223 2322
      Hobart              10   3223 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--3 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2341 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled. Expect 
geomagnetic field to remain quiet to unsettled over the next 
three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude ionograms showed possible loss of HF communication 
for short periods. Expect near normal HF conditions for this 
time of year and period in the solar cycle. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov    18    near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov    18    near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs should return to predicted monthly values as the 
Earth's magnetic field returns to quiet and unsettled conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 666 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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