[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
The geoeffective coronal hole wind stream increase slightly from 
650 km/sec to 700km/sec. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3433 3332
      Darwin              12   3333 2322
      Learmonth           13   2333 3330
      Culgoora            15   3333 3332
      Canberra            16   3433 3332
      Hobart              16   3433 3332
      Casey(Ant)          24   45-4 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            98   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             124   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             24   3534 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    20    active 
06 Nov    12    Unsettled 
07 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 3-5 November. Geomagnetic activity 
has been unsettled to active with isolated occurrences of minor 
storms due to effects of coronal hole wind stream. Expect similar 
disturbances to continue today, 5 November, as coronal wind stream 
remains in geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions are expected 
particularly at high latitudes today, 5 November, due to geomagnetic 
disturbances effecting the ionosphere. Observed spread F at mid 
to high latitudes overnight and isolated occurrences of sporadic 
E at Darwin. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25% 
06 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Nov    22    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild to minor depressions are expected today, 5 November, 
due to geomagnetic disturbances effecting the ionosphrere. Also 
expect isolated cases of Spread F during night time hours to 
continue at mid to high latitudes. High latitudes may have periods 
of HF communication loss. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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