[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 21 09:42:36 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. A few
B-class flares were observed. A high B-class or very low
C-class flare has also been observed just before the time
of this report, but due to server error the LASCO imagery
could not be available and no further details of the flare
could be established. The solar wind stream showed some
strengthening from approximately 0300UT to 1500UT after a
weak sudden impulse was observed. This seems to have occurred
due to the arrival of a very faint and slow full halo CME
that was observed on 17 May. The solar wind speed showed an
increase from 440 km/s to 480 km/s soon after the arrival of
the CME around 0300UT and remained between 470 km/s and 480
km/s until 1500UT. The solar wind stream then gradually
declined back to 440 km/s by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) turned southwards when the weak impulse was noticed and
remained moderately southwards until 0800UT. Bz then turned
sligtly to moderately northwards and stayed northwards until
2000UT and it is currently staying close to the normal value.
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
during the next 3 days, but there also remains some possibility
of isolated C-class activity during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 18 2453 3312
Learmonth 19 2453 3322
Culgoora 18 2453 3311
Canberra 20 2453 4312
Hobart 18 1453 4211
Casey(Ant) 15 3443 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 2332 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
22 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
23 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Periods of minor geomagnetic storm were observed
today due to the arrival of a very faint and slow CME that
was observed on 17 May. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet levels during the next three days
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods. A weak
(13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0403UT on 20 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most locations during the next 3 days with some possibility of
minor to mild depressions and degradation on high latitudes on
21 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
22 May 32 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
23 May 32 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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