[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:12:24 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8/1B 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the past
24 hours, now at 400km/sec. At this stage ACE EPAM precursor
data does not show any increasing flux levels following recent
mass ejections, a weak shock is possible late 18-19 May, but
this is not currently confirmed by precursor data. Solar region
763 (S16E01) a M1/1N flare at 0240 associated with a type II
radio sweep observed on the Culgoora RadioSpectrograph. Subsequent
viewing of LASCO imagery showed no vsisible sign of a coronal
mass ejection, however LASCO has reported a faint full halo CME
at 0350 UT on 17 May in asscoiation with the M1 flare from 763.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3322
Learmonth 12 3331 ----
Culgoora 11 3333 2222
Canberra 14 3433 2322
Hobart 17 3443 3322
Casey(Ant) 10 3223 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 33 4653 4522
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 18 active
19 May 18 active
20 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 17 May and
is current for interval 18-19 May. Coronal mass ejection and
coronal hole wind stream induced activity is possible late 18-19
May. Forecast Ap values eased due to lack of prescursor signature
in solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today. However, moderately
degraded HF conditions due to CME induced activity may be experienced
late 18-19 May mid to high latitudes only. HF conditions remained
degraded longer than expected yesterday at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
19 May 15 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 May 20 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 17 May
and is current for interval 19 May only. Generally good HF conditions
expected for today. A mild to moderate degradation in HF condtions
is possible for southern Aus/NZ region late 18 to 19 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 650 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 13000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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