[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 11 09:44:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0523UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 758 producing a M1.3-class event at 0503UT and region
759 the source of a C5.8-class flare at 1938UT. Both regions
have a magnetic complexity that suggest further flare activity
is likey in the next two days - with possible M class flares.
Region 758 has grown significantly in sunspot size over the last
24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) north-south
Bz component was southward between 0000UT and 0800UT before
fluctuating about neutral and then turning north, with a
magnitude less than 5nT at all times. Solar wind speed continues
to slowly decline from 550km/s at the beginning of the UT day
to be 460km/s at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 1112
Learmonth 4 2221 1112
Culgoora 4 1221 1112
Canberra 4 2221 1112
Hobart 4 2221 1111
Casey(Ant) 9 3332 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3311 1234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next two days with normal solar wind stream paramters.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected over the next 2 days with
the possible degraded periods for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 40 near predicted monthly values
12 May 45 near predicted monthly values
13 May 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditions are expected for both Northern Aust.
and Southern Australian and NZ regions for the next 2 days as
quiet geomagnetic conditions continue. Possible SWF due to increased
chance of flare activity from current growing sunspots.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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