[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3323 3333
      Learmonth           15   3233 4333
      Culgoora             9   3222 3223
      Canberra            13   3323 3333
      Hobart              13   3323 3333
      Casey(Ant)          13   3333 3324
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   1132 2244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    38    Active to Minor storm 
02 May    19    active 
03 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and 
is current for interval 1-2 May. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions 
expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal-Fair    Fair-Poor      Poor
02 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
02 May    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
03 May    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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