[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind has gradually declined over the past 24 hours 
to around 600 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has remained around neutral over the past 24 hours. 
No significant sunspot regions are currently visible on the sun, 
and very low levels of solar flare activity expected over the 
next three days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2323 2312
      Darwin              10   2323 2322
      Learmonth            8   2223 2311
      Culgoora             8   2223 2312
      Canberra            11   2333 2312
      Hobart              11   2333 2312
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--4 2312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2133 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     5    Quiet 
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
05 Mar     5    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 639 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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