[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:53:00 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only one B1.0 
flare was observed at 1907UT. The anticipated coronal hole 
effect seems to have started about one day before expected 
as the solar wind speed gradually increased from 320 km/s 
to 500 km/s during the UT day today. The CCD Bakeout problem
with SOHO images is still not allowing to see the coronal hole
position. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) remained moderately negative during most 
part of the first half of the UT day. Bz showed minor to moderate 
fluctuations during the second half of the day. The solar wind 
stream is expected to remain strong due to the high speed coronal 
hole stream during the next three days and the solar activity 
is expected to remain very low during this period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to major storm. 

Estimated Indices 23 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3354 3432
      Learmonth           32   3455 4532
      Culgoora            23   3354 3431
      Canberra            27   3364 3432
      Hobart              27   3364 3432
      Casey(Ant)          16   3343 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2212 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    20    Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm 
                periods possible. 
25 Jun    20    Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm 
                periods possible. 
26 Jun    20    Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity recorded higher levels (upto 
isolated major storm) than anticipated on 23 June. The reason 
seems to be an earlier than expected start of the coronal hole 
effect and sustained periods of negative Bz. The coronal hole 
effect is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced 
from unsettled to minor storm levels with some possibility of 
isolated major storm conditions during the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show minor to moderate 
degradations on high latitude and occassionally on some mid 
latitude locations during the next three days due to an 
anticipated continued enhancement in geomagnetic activity 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jun    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: There is some possibility of minor to mild 
degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next 
three days due to an anticipated continued rise in 
geomagnetic activity during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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