[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:53:00 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only one B1.0
flare was observed at 1907UT. The anticipated coronal hole
effect seems to have started about one day before expected
as the solar wind speed gradually increased from 320 km/s
to 500 km/s during the UT day today. The CCD Bakeout problem
with SOHO images is still not allowing to see the coronal hole
position. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained moderately negative during most
part of the first half of the UT day. Bz showed minor to moderate
fluctuations during the second half of the day. The solar wind
stream is expected to remain strong due to the high speed coronal
hole stream during the next three days and the solar activity
is expected to remain very low during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to major storm.
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 23 3354 3432
Learmonth 32 3455 4532
Culgoora 23 3354 3431
Canberra 27 3364 3432
Hobart 27 3364 3432
Casey(Ant) 16 3343 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2212 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 20 Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm
periods possible.
25 Jun 20 Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm
periods possible.
26 Jun 20 Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity recorded higher levels (upto
isolated major storm) than anticipated on 23 June. The reason
seems to be an earlier than expected start of the coronal hole
effect and sustained periods of negative Bz. The coronal hole
effect is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced
from unsettled to minor storm levels with some possibility of
isolated major storm conditions during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show minor to moderate
degradations on high latitude and occassionally on some mid
latitude locations during the next three days due to an
anticipated continued enhancement in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is some possibility of minor to mild
degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next
three days due to an anticipated continued rise in
geomagnetic activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list