[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   0010 0001
      Learmonth            1   1111 0000
      Culgoora             0   0000 0001
      Canberra             0   0000 0001
      Hobart               0   0000 0000
      Casey(Ant)           2   1121 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1112 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     7    Quiet 
23 Jun     6    Quiet 
24 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    63400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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