[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:48:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with region
772 producing numerous C-class events, the largest being a C4.9
at 0051UT. Solar wind speed began to gradually rise at 1100UT
from 400km/s to be 550km/s at the time of this report,
characterisitic of the arrival of the predicted coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT
before the solar wind speed began to rise, after which it ranged
from +/-10nT with a few southward periods. New region 775 that
appeared today was the most likely source of the large, east limb
CME observed yesterday. Further C-class events are expected for
the next few days with the chance of isolated M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 18 1222 3263
Learmonth 13 1121 3353
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 12 1222 2253
Hobart 11 1122 2253
Casey(Ant) 28 2322 3273
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2332 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 25 active
06 Jun 20 active
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 3 June and
is current for interval 3-5 June. Quiet to Minor Storm levels
observed over the last 24 hours due to the effects of the coronal
hole wind stream. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected
over the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditons are expected over the next
2 days, but with expected degradations for high to mid latitudes
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Jun 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to have periods
of mild depressions over the next two days due to coronal hole
induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 87300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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