[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:48:10 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with region 
772 producing numerous C-class events, the largest being a C4.9 
at 0051UT. Solar wind speed began to gradually rise at 1100UT 
from 400km/s to be 550km/s at the time of this report,
characterisitic of the arrival of the predicted coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT
before the solar wind speed began to rise, after which it ranged
from +/-10nT with a few southward periods. New region 775 that
appeared today was the most likely source of the large, east limb
CME observed yesterday. Further C-class events are expected for
the next few days with the chance of isolated M-class events. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   1222 3263
      Learmonth           13   1121 3353
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            12   1222 2253
      Hobart              11   1122 2253
      Casey(Ant)          28   2322 3273
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    25    active 
06 Jun    20    active 
07 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 3 June and 
is current for interval 3-5 June. Quiet to Minor Storm levels 
observed over the last 24 hours due to the effects of the coronal 
hole wind stream. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected 
over the next 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
06 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditons are expected over the next 
2 days, but with expected degradations for high to mid latitudes 
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
06 Jun    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
                 
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to have periods 
of mild depressions over the next two days due to coronal hole 
induced geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    87300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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