[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:57:24 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW** MAG:**RED** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3 0636UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Active region 792 produced a long-duration X1.3 level
flare at 0635UT. This was followed by Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps, and an asymmetric full-halo CME has been reported. The
Type II sweep was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
with an estimated shock velocity of 1835 km/s. A long, parallel-ribbon
flare structure was recorded on the Culgoora H-Alpha Imager in
AR792 at this time. A glancing blow geomagnetic shock is possible
from this event on Aug 01. Proton flux remains elevated at 21
pfu at the time of report issue and the current proton event
is still in progress. This event may be sustained by the major
flare activity observed today. AR 792 also produced a C9 level
flare at 1639, with an easterly-directed CME reported. No Type
II radio sweep was reported in association with this event. Solar
wind speed declined gradually throughout the UT day from 580
to 500 km/s as the present geoeffectively positioned coronal
hole rotates beyond the west limb. Further M to X class flare
activity appears likely from AR792.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 3233 2112
Learmonth 6 2232 1112
Culgoora 8 2233 2112
Canberra 8 3233 1101
Hobart 9 2333 2111
Casey(Ant) 12 4332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 3434 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug 25 Active to minor storm
02 Aug 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 1-2 August. Active to minor storm conditions
observed at high latitudes early in the UT day. Otherwise conditions
mostly unsettled, declining to quiet in the second half of the
UT day. Solar wind parameters are declining as the currently
geoeffective coronal hole rotates beyond the west limb. A glancing
blow geomagnetic shock is possible early on Aug 01 resulting
from a CME associated with major solar flare activity observed
at 30/0630. Intervals of minor to major stom conditions are possible
on Aug 01, declining to mostly unsettled on Aug 02.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2005 2325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
01 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes.
The current proton event is still in progress and may be sustained
by further observed solar flare activity. Expect continuing increased
daytime absorption and periods of degradation at high latitudes.
A possible geomagnetic shock on day two may cause periods of
disturbance mainly at high latitudes on days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed equatorial/N Aus
regions. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regions on days
two and three due to geomagnetic activity associated with a minor
solar wind shock. Proton event following recent flare activity
is still in progress, and may be sustained by further observed
solar flare activity. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during
local day over the next week due to returning active solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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