[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 28 09:44:36 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.7 0502UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to moderate with a long-duration
M3.7 level flare occuring on the east limb at 0500UT. An associated
Type II radio sweep was reported by Learmonth Solar Observatory
with an estimated shock speed of 682 km/s. The event was also
observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph with an estimated
shock speed of 671 km/s. LASCO C3 imagery showed a narrow, westerly
directed CME first visible at 0318UT, possibly a backside event,
followed by an easterly-directed semi-halo CME from the east-limb
flare, first visible at 0518UT. Neither event is expected to
be geoeffective. Origin of the east limb event is most likely
returning region 786. This regiion appears to be still active
and elevated solar activity is expected as it rotates onto the
visible disk. Solar wind speed increased significantly after
10UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed
fluctuations of +5 to -10 nT late in the day. These effects are
probably the onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 2221 1224
Learmonth 7 2221 1234
Culgoora 6 2221 2223
Canberra 5 1221 1224
Hobart 5 1221 1224
Casey(Ant) 8 2232 2224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1121 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Jul 12 Unsettled
30 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream was
observed late in the UT day 27 Jul. Geomagnetic activity is likely
to increase to mostly unsettled with active periods on days one
and two of the forecast period, declining to quiet to unsettled
on day three. Returning solar active region 786 (yet to be newly
numbered) may produce isolated geoeffective flare events over
the next week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A brief period of disturbance was observed mostly at
low latitudes around 05UT due to a significant X-ray solar flare.
Otherwise mostly normal HF condiions at all latitudes. Expect
periods of degradation at mid to high latitudes next three days
due to elevated geomagnetic activity associated with a high speed
coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values to depressed upto
10%.
30 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regios next three
days due to geomagnetic activity associated with a high speed
coronal hole wind stream. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during
local day over the next week due to returning active solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 20100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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