[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 20 09:52:09 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar disc was spotless again today with no new
sunspot regions named. IMF Bz oscillated north and south about
zero for most of the day until a weak front near 19UT turned
it strongly southwards until just before 00UT. The recurrent coronal
hole is now west of central meridian and should become geoeffective
in a day, elevating solar wind speed with a high speed solar
wind stream (HSSWS). Last time this coronal hole passed the solar
disk (June 23 onwards) the solar wind speeds reached up to 650
km/s on June 25.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 2112
Learmonth 4 1221 2112
Culgoora 4 1121 2112
Canberra 4 1121 2112
Hobart 4 1121 2112
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 34 5663 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
21 Jul 18 active
22 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The field has been quiet today with mid-latitude K indices
at or below 2. High latitudes have been quiet to unsettled due
to IMF Bz values occasionally southwards. The sustained Bz southwards
since 19UT resulting in merging of the IMF and geomagnetic fields
has caused minor storm conditions at auroral oval latitudes in
the last 3 hours. The solar coronal hole, with presumably associated
high solar wind speed should become effective on the 20th, causing
increased geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 1740UT 17/07, Ended at 0920UT 18/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
21 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The ionosphere is quiescent prior to the arrival of
the high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole, which
may deteriorate conditions in the next couple of days due to
enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 23 about 5% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul 22 about 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears stable with the end of
enhanced geomagnetic conditions from prolonged IMF Bz. The high
latitudes will likely remain disturbed early in the day due to
IMF Bz southwards. The oncoming coronal hole could disturb the
ionosphere in the coming 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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