[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only 
a C1.0 class flare from region 782 at 2028UT. Solar wind speed 
continued to decline from 480km/s at 0000UT to be 440km/s at 
the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) flucatuated between +/-4nT
over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be low with the
slight chance of an M-class event. Only region 786 displayed
some small growth in sunpot size. All other regions currently
on disk underwent either a small decay or no change at all over
the last 24 hours, nor was there any increase in magnetic
complexity seen for any region. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 1101
      Learmonth            4   2212 1101
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             3   2211 1000
      Hobart               2   1111 1101
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   4323 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     7    Quiet 
06 Jul     7    Quiet 
07 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected over the next 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over all latitudes during 
the last 24 hours with similar conditions expected for the next 
2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    45    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    45    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over all Aus/NZ regions 
for the next 2 days, with possible enhancements for low to mid 
latitude locations. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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