[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: The sun has been mostly flare quiet of past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed declined from 550 to 400km/sec over UT day, as
the Earth leaves the recent brief coronal hole wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1113 2222
      Darwin               4   1112 2122
      Learmonth            4   1112 2121
      Culgoora             3   1012 2112
      Canberra             6   1123 2211
      Hobart               6   1123 2211
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2112 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan    12    Unsettled 
27 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Jan    14    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally unsettled conditions expected. 27 day recurrent 
patterns suggest active periods possible 29-30 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jan    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 577 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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