[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 12 10:56:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
718 and 719 have been combined into the one region 718, which
was the source of a C1.4-class event at 1605UT. Region 718 and
720 were also repsonsible for numerous B-class events. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, continued
to fluctuate between +/-5nT, with some sustained southward periods
between 0230UT-0530UT and 0600UT-0900UT. Solar wind velocity
declined from a peak of 460km/s at 0200UT to 400km/s at the time
of this report. Region 718 holds the potential for further C-class
flare activity.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 713 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 2332 2323
Darwin 9 3222 2323
Learmonth 12 3222 2433
Culgoora 9 2332 132-
Canberra 11 2432 1323
Hobart 9 2332 1322
Casey(Ant) 18 ---4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
13 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
14 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over the next
24 hours, with a slight chance of isolated Active peiods due
to begin as a result of a large northern positioned coronal hole
becoming geoeffective in the last 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitutes for
the last 24 hours, with these conditions expected to continue
for the next 2 days. Small chance of depressed periods for high
latitudes over this forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all regions in the
last 24 hours. Conditions expected to be normal for the next
24 hours with the chance of drepressed periods for Southern AUS
and NZ regions due to an possible increase in geomagnetic activity
from coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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