[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
only minor B class events. A large north east positioned filament 
dissapeared, and from LASCO imagery was the cause of a westward 
non earth directed CME. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT for the entire UT 
day. Continued elevated solar wind conditions (from the coronal 
hole wind stream) were observed for most of the UT day, but began 
to decline, with the solar wind velocity dropping from 700km/s 
to be almost 550km/s at the time of this report. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3233 3322
      Darwin              12   3233 3323
      Learmonth           14   3234 3322
      Culgoora            12   3233 3322
      Canberra            14   3243 3322
      Hobart              13   3243 3312
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth          111   (Major storm)
      Culgoora            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23   4434 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    16    active 
07 Jan    16    active 
08 Jan    16    active 
COMMENT: Active periods are expected over the next 2 days due 
to both coronal hole wind stream, weak coronal mass ejection 
induced activity and possible glancing effects of a dissappearing 
filament. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation periods possible for the next 2 days 
over mid to high latitudes, otherwise conditons are expected 
to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    40    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan    40    near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal conditons expected for the next few days, with 
the chance of isolated peiods of degradation for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 714 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   285000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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