[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    1445UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 715 may produce further M class flares. 
Coronal mass ejections from recent flare activity assumed enroute 
to Earth. Eastward solar location may reduce the geoeffectiveness 
of these events. Two shocks in the solar wind are expected second 
half of the UT day 01 Jan. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            5   2112 2212
      Culgoora             5   1111 2230
      Canberra             5   1222 2213
      Hobart               4   1221 2112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   2343 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
02 Jan    20    active 
03 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 1-2 January. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
02 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan    60    enhanced 15% local day, then depressed 10 to 15% 
02 Jan    10    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
03 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 2-3 January. Good HF conditions expected 
early today. Depressed conditions expected 02 Jan, possible extending 
to 03 Jan due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejections. 
Effects are expected to be strongest for southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    99800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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