[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 18 10:43:34 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
one C-class flare observed, a C4.9 on 16Feb at 2330UT from region
734, that was classed as a full halo mass ejection. The solar
wind speed was steady at 400km/s for most of the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
was mostly north, except for a sudden southward change at 2200UT
to be at -10nT at the time of this report. Solar activity is
expected to remain at low levels for the next 2 days, with no
change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any regions
currently on the disk. Chance of elevated solar wind stream parameters
over the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects and the 16Feb
earth directed CME.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2204UT
on 17 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 2212 2213
Darwin 6 2231 1212
Learmonth 5 2202 2213
Culgoora 4 2111 1212
Canberra 4 2211 1213
Hobart 5 2211 2212
Casey(Ant) 16 4--3 2423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 2124 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next 2 days. Unsettled to
Active periods possible with mild coronal hole effects and an
expected arrival of a shock front from the 16Feb CME due on 19Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
all latitudes for the next three days. Chance of minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions at high latitudes from an expected
rise in geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
19 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
all Aus/NZ regions for the next two days, with expected degradations
over Southern Aus/NZ regions from increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 71400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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